Health Of A Grandmother
Do Not Cross A River If It Is On Average Four Foot Deep
by Daniel Bennett
Bruce Springsteen adored his Grandmother. She treated him like a prince
How To Lose A Grandmother
You have just been informed that your grandmother will spend the next two hours at the very desirable average temperature of seventy degrees fahrenheit (about twenty-one degrees).
Excellent, you think since seventy degrees is the optimal temperature for your grandmother. Since you went to the business school, you are a “big picture” type of person and are totally satisfied with anything you read about. Ability to summarise.
But there is a second piece of data. Your grandmother, it turns out, will spend the first hour at zero degrees Fahrenheit (around minus eight Celsius), and the second hour at one hundred and forty degrees (around 60 °C), for an average of the very desirable Mediterranean-style seventy degrees (21°C). This will not be good for the grandmother.
Clearly, temperature changes become more and more harmful as they deviate from seventy degrees. As you see the second piece of information, the variability, turned out to be more important than the first. The notion of average is of no significance when one is fragile to variations – the dispersion in possible thermal outcomes here matters much more. Your grandmother is fragile to variations in temperature, to the volatility of the weather. Let us call that second piece of information the second-order-effect, or, more precisely the convexity effect.
Here, consider that, as much as a good simplification the notion of average can be, it can also be a procrustean bed. The information that the average temperature is seventy degrees fahrenheit does not simplify the situation for your grandmother. It is information squeezed into a Procrustean bed – and these are necessarily committed by Scientific modelers, since a model is by its very nature a simplification. You just don’t want the simplification to distort the situation to the point of being harmful.
The figure below shows the fragility of health of a grandmother to variations. If I plot health on the virtual axis, and a temperature below seventy degrees would be offset by the benefits of temperature above it. And the fact is that the health of the grandmother has to be capped at a maximum, otherwise she would keep improving.
Megafragility. Health as a function of temperature curves inward. A combination of 0 and 140 degrees (F) is worse for your Grandmother’s health than just 70 degrees. In fact almost any combination averaging 70 degrees is worse than just 70 degrees. The graph shows concavity or negative convexity effects – curves inward. Take this for now as we rapidly move to the more general attributes; in the case of the grandmother’s health response to temperature: (a) there is nonlinearity (the response is not a straight line, not “ linear”),(b) it curves inward, too much so, and, finally, © the more nonlinear the response, the less relevant the average, and the more stabilty around such an average.
You are able to monitor your Grandmother’s mood, her pulse, her blood sugar trend, her blood pressure, her heart activity, and all her vital health statistics. From a distance using the guardian feature with the Helo LX + Device.This is not only a breakthrough medically certified device it is a, phenomenal sharing opportunityA Business Opportunity
Ducketts Mead, Reading, RG2 9GY